Macro Regime Scoreboard
Rules-based signal across all dimensionsGrowth
GDP above 2% trend
Current: 2.4% · Threshold: 2.0%
Mfg PMI expanding
Current: 49.2 · Threshold: 50
Svc PMI expanding
Current: 51.5 · Threshold: 50
Inflation
CPI trending lower
Current: 2.9% · Target: 2.0%
Core CPI < 3.5%
Current: 3.4% · Fed watches Core
Breakevens anchored
10Y breakeven: 2.31%
Labour
Unemployment < 4.5%
Current: 3.9%
Payrolls positive
Latest NFP: 187K
Claims stable
Weekly claims: 230K
Rates & Credit
Yield curve normal
10Y–2Y spread: -0.44%
Real rates positive
Real 10Y ≈ 1.96% (nominal - PCE)
Fed pivot probability
Rates likely to ease in Q4 2026
Overall Signal: Slowdown
Mixed signals across dimensions. Some growth metrics softening while inflation remains above target. Positioning warrants caution. This analysis is rules-based and simulated — not investment advice.
All data is simulated for demonstration purposes only · Not investment advice · Macro signals are rules-based and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions · Consult a qualified financial adviser