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Optics›macroMacro · US
Macro Regime: Slowdown
Fed Funds5.25–5.50%
US 10Y4.27%
CPI YoY2.9%
GDP QoQ2.4%
Unemp.3.9%
⠿Rates & Yield Curvedrag to reorder

Rates & Yield Curve

Central bank policy + government bond yields
⠿Fed Funds Rate
5.25–5.50%unch.
FOMC target
⠿US 2Y Treasury
4.71%-1.8 bp
Price 99.24
⠿US 10Y Treasury
4.27%-3.2 bp
Price 97.14
⠿US 30Y Treasury
4.48%-2.1 bp
Price 94.82
⠿10Y–2Y Spread
-0.44%Inverted
Curve shape
⠿ECB Rate
3.65%-25 bp
Sep 12 decision
⠿BOJ Rate
0.25%+15 bp
Jul 31 decision
⠿PBOC LPR
3.45%unch.
1-year rate

US Yield Curve — Current Shape

5.31%
1M
5.28%
3M
5.18%
6M
4.94%
1Y
4.71%
2Y
4.54%
3Y
4.42%
5Y
4.34%
7Y
4.27%
10Y
4.58%
20Y
4.48%
30Y

⚠ Inverted curve — historically a leading recession indicator · Simulated data only

⠿Inflationdrag to reorder

Inflation

Price levels vs Fed 2% target
⠿CPI YoY
2.9%0.0 pts
Prev 2.9%
⠿Core CPI YoY
3.4%0.0 pts
Prev 3.4%
⠿PCE YoY
2.5%-0.1 pts
Prev 2.6%
⠿PPI YoY
1.9%-0.2 pts
Prev 2.1%
⠿10Y Breakeven
2.31%-3 bp
Inflation expectations
CPI vs target (2%)2.9%
0%▼ 2% target5%
Core CPI vs target3.4%
0%▼ 2% target5%
PCE vs target (2%)2.5%
0%▼ 2% target5%
10Y Breakeven2.3%
1.5%▼ 2% target4%
⠿Growth & Activitydrag to reorder

Growth & Activity

GDP, PMI, industrial output, retail
⠿GDP QoQ (ann.)
2.4%+0.3 pts
Prev 2.1%
⠿ISM Mfg PMI
49.2+0.4
50 = neutral
⠿ISM Services PMI
51.5+0.1
50 = neutral
⠿Retail Sales MoM
+0.3%+0.2 pts
Prev +0.1%
⠿Industrial Production
+0.3%+0.2 pts
Prev +0.1%

PMI Levels — Expansion vs Contraction (50 = neutral)

US Mfg
49.2
US Svc
51.5
EZ Mfg
45.8
EZ Svc
52.9
CN Mfg
50.4

Above 50 = expansion · Below 50 = contraction

⠿Labour Marketdrag to reorder

Labour Market

Employment, wages, and job market health
⠿Unemployment Rate
3.9%-0.1 pts
Prev 4.0%
⠿Non-Farm Payrolls
187K+73K
Prev 114K
⠿Jobless Claims
230K+3K
Prev 227K
⠿JOLTS Openings
7.67M-240K
Prev 7.91M
⠿Avg Hourly Wages
+3.8%-0.1 pts
Prev +3.9%
⠿Global Comparisondrag to reorder

Global Comparison

US vs Europe vs Asia key indicators
Indicator
🇺🇸 US
🇪🇺 Europe
🇯🇵 Asia
GDP Growth
2.4%
+0.3%
+0.8%
Mfg PMI
49.2
45.8
50.4
Services PMI
51.5
52.9
—
CPI YoY
2.9%
2.2%
2.8%
Unemployment
3.9%
6.4%
—
Policy Rate
5.25–5.50%
3.65%
0.25%
Green = relatively stronger readingSimulated data only · Not investment advice
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All data is simulated for demonstration purposes only · Not investment advice · Macro signals are rules-based and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions · Consult a qualified financial adviser